000
FXUS64 KEWX 090433
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1133 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

.AVIATION...
I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY MID EVENING
BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LOCALLY LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE EVENING THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. KDRT TERMINAL VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/

UPDATE...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF
BANDERA COUNTY AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON THAT LEFT RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES AND UP TO 11 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF MEDINA COUNTY ESPECIALLY OVER DEVINE CITY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO HAVE LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I 35
WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CAUSING A LOT OF PROBLEMS SINCE EARLIER IN
THE DAY. HAVING SAY THAT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED
SHORTY.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT REMNANTS MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND FROM
HERMINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO COMBINE WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY
MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE RETURN OF THE MID
90S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/

AVIATION...
TROPICAL CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR IS
WEAKENING AT THE PRESENT TIME AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK. I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS MOSTLY VFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BY MID EVENING BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. KDRT
TERMINAL VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS LIFTING TO
VFR AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/

UPDATE...
EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I 35 CORRIDOR AND ALL SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EAST OF HIGHWAY 35.

AS OF 610 PM CDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST ALONG I 35 IS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ESTIMATED ONE HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF BEXAR COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/

DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE
REMANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT IS RAPIDLY
DECREASING, WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE SCHEDULED
EXPIRATION TIME OF 6 PM AS SOME HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS EVENING. DUE TO RESIDUAL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH DECREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING MAINLY
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ALONG THE SEABREEZE. MAV/MEX GUIDANCE
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
105 ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/

AVIATION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE MVFR IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
AREAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS I35. THIS WILL BRING SHRA TO THE AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 23Z. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOMORROW LATE MORNING.

DRT HAS VFR CIG AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
IT WILL DROP TO MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  77  94  78  96 / 100  30  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  77  94  78  95 /  90  30  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  76  94  76  96 /  90  30  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  74  91  76  91 / 100  30  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  77  95  77  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  76  93  76  93 / 100  30  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  76  92  77  94 / 100  30  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  94  77  95 /  90  30  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  77  92  78  93 /  80  30  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  78  93  78  95 /  70  30  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  77  95  78  95 /  70  30  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

17/02

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion